Has there ever been a Chicago mayor as unpopular as Brandon Johnson? A new poll has his favorability rating at a cringeworthy 14 percent. As political consultant Tom Bowen delicately puts it: “This mayor is so weakened by his own hand that eight out of 10 Chicagoans would rather get punched in the face than reelect him.”

Ouch. Even with the primary two years away, that kind of sentiment has already fueled early jockeying for who might succeed Johnson. We’ve ranked 11 speculated-about contenders in order of who we think has the best shot.

1. Alexi Giannoulias Nobody thinks Giannoulias wants to be Illinois secretary of state forever like his predecessor, Jesse White. The perfectly tousled-haired former banker has won two statewide elections (he was Illinois treasurer, too), but can that translate to local success? There’s no precedent for a constitutional officer moving into the mayor’s seat. Still, Giannoulias has name recognition (his is on every Illinois driver’s license), an affable personality (just watch him chuckle his way through reciting “HOKTUAH” and “AXEHOLE” and other rejected license plates on YouTube), and proven fundraising skills (he has $3.3 million in his war chest). He hasn’t been afraid of piling on Johnson either, calling the city’s recent credit downgrade “truly maddening.” Says one City Hall observer: “If Alexi gets in the race, he would be an early front-runner because of his personal wealth and name ID.” He would likely run as a moderate, emphasizing public services over ideology. But some think he’s got his eye on a bigger stage, like D.C. (he lost a Senate run to Mark Kirk in 2010) or the governor’s mansion.

2. Susana Mendoza The state comptroller has run for mayor before, in 2019, finishing a disappointing-for-her fifth. But that was at the height of the Ed Burke scandal, which tainted anyone in his vicinity. A frequent critic of the mayor on X, she has applauded alderpersons for standing up to him and needled Johnson’s administration for showing “zero fiscal discipline.” So yes, she thinks she can do better. “Ninety-five percent she’s in,” says a Northwest Side political operative. “I think she runs in the Paul Vallas lane without the Paul Vallas baggage.”

3. Mike Quigley The congressman once said that if he were 10 years younger, he would consider a bid for mayor. Well, he hasn’t gotten any younger. So what’s changed? With Republicans in control, being a U.S. rep isn’t as much fun for a Dem as it once was. But his interest is tenuous at best. “If the field looks deep, he’s out,” says the Northwest Sider. “If Alexi runs, he doesn’t.” In his favor: a proven path. His 5th District, which encompasses parts of downtown and the North and Northwest Sides, is the same one Rahm Emanuel represented in his pre-mayor days.

4. Bill Conway The son of a billionaire has become a voice of the moderates in the City Council. Representing the chichi 34th Ward in the West Loop puts him in a position to become the candidate of the business community. “He’s made a lot of friends since he’s been alderman,” says one political consultant. That includes the new Cook County state’s attorney, Eileen O’Neill Burke, whom he backed early.

5. Brian Hopkins Before becoming 2nd Ward alderperson in 2015, he was Cook County Commissioner John Daley’s chief of staff. “Not to say the Daley family would be behind him, but he has a lot of friends,” says the political consultant. “He’s thoughtful, he’s smart.” Still, the last person to to go directly from the City Council to the mayor’s office was Monroe Heath — in 1876.

6. Anna Valencia The city clerk is “definitely looking at it,” says a lobbyist who had lunch with her a couple of months back. Valencia has won two citywide elections. Still, hers is not exactly a high-profile office. And the fact that she already soundly lost a race to Giannoulias doesn’t bode well if they both run. “She’s improperly being told she has a shot,” says the Northwest Side consultant. “The Latino vote is nonmonolithic, and it’s not that big — ask Chuy García.” Valencia might be smarter to back Mendoza, then run for her seat as comptroller.

7. Janice Jackson Emanuel’s people are pushing the former Chicago Public Schools CEO, now serving as CEO of the scholarship program Hope Chicago, to run. Jackson, who left CPS in part because she was tired of fighting the Chicago Teachers Union, has been making the media rounds of late, arguing for more “stability” in education. Being mayor would certainly give her a large hand in that.

8. Luis Gutiérrez After returning to Chicago in 2023 following his short-lived retirement in Puerto Rico, the former congressman is believed to be taking a serious look, but he would have to potentially beat out Mendoza for the Latino vote. He’s also contending with a health issue: Macular degeneration has degraded his vision. Word is he’s being pushed by charter school advocate Juan Rangel.

9. Kam Buckner The state representative ran for mayor in 2023 — and finished with 2 percent of the vote. Public transportation was his pet issue then, and the struggles of the CTA have made it even more salient. But it’s a long ride from the State Capitol to the fifth floor.

10. Brendan Reilly The 42nd Ward alderperson has been noncommittal about running but talks like a candidate, telling the Sun-Times that Johnson is a “woefully unprepared” captive of the “radical left” and is well on his way to becoming a “one-termer.” Hurting Reilly’s chances: He’s not well known outside of his downtown district. And he’d have to give up his City Council seat to run, which might make him pause.

11. Lori Lightfoot It seems unfathomable that the former mayor would try to return, considering she didn’t even make the runoff last time. But there’s been scuttlebutt she’s feeling out fundraisers. A year ago, Lightfoot herself told Chicago this about holding the office: “I don’t want to do anything like that again.” But she also added that, after a first year of missteps by Johnson, she had suddenly become “the most popular person in Chicago.”

All of this speculation is a fun exercise, but that Johnson won’t get reelected is not a foregone conclusion. He might yet rally his progressive base enough to force a runoff, and who knows what might happen if he faces a Paul Vallas–like quasi conservative again. In Chicago politics, stranger things have happened.