Juliana Stratton is first out of the gate in the race to succeed Dick Durbin as U.S. senator. She was first to announce, and she already has two of the three biggest endorsements, from Governor JB Pritzker and Senator Tammy Duckworth. Only a nod from Durbin himself would carry more weight.

Still, I don’t think she’s going to win. Why not? Because she’s the lieutenant governor, and that job is a graveyard for political ambitions.

There’s a long history of lieutenant governors trying to move up to governor or senator, and a history just as long of lieutenant governors failing. In 1972, when Paul Simon was lieutenant governor, he ran for governor — and lost the primary, despite the backing of Richard J. Daley’s machine. Simon eventually made it to the Senate, but only after serving 10 years in the House. Next, Dave O’Neal — the lieutenant governor under Jim Thompson — ran for Senate in 1980. He lost to Alan Dixon. His ambitions thwarted, he quit the lieutenant governorship, complaining he was bored. Bob Kustra — lieutenant under Governor Jim Edgar — ran for Senate in 1998. Lost in the primary; quit to become a university president. Corinne Wood ran for governor in 2002, hoping to succeed her boss, George Ryan. She lost in the primary.

All these politicians had the same problem: as lieutenant governor, they had limited responsibilities, and no opportunities to build a record of their own. The lieutenant governor serves as chairman of the Governor’s Rural Affairs Council, chairman of the Rural Bond Bank of Illinois, head of the Illinois Main Street Program, and chairman of the Illinois River Coordinating Council. Have you heard of any of these agencies? Do you have any idea what they do? Neither do I. They don’t call the job “lite gov” for nothing. To quote what John Nance Garner once said about the vice presidency (he served under FDR), the lieutenant governorship is not worth a bucket of warm piss. Practically, the LG’s only job is to wait for the governor to die or, this being Illinois, get indicted. The latter is what happened to Pat Quinn, the luckiest lieutenant governor in recent history. He took over the governor’s job after Rod Blagojevich was arrested for trying to sell Barack Obama’s Senate seat, and parlayed his incumbency into a full term. 

“The Lieut. Gov. does not have a chance to do anything significant on her own in that vacuous job,” opined political consultant Don Rose in a Facebook post on Stratton. “She has, however, championed major prison-reform organizations and overall criminal justice reforms. Her state house term was straight party line. Obviously it will be in the U.S. Senate. She will be an early frontrunner because of Pritzker.”

Stratton is also the early frontrunner because she’s the only candidate running. But soon she’s going to have to face politicians with actual records to run on. Politicians such as U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood, who sponsored laws lowering insulin costs and guaranteeing maternal care to veterans. Or Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, who also served a term as state treasurer. Or U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has raised $19 million toward a run for federal office. (Although with Pritzker’s support, money is not likely to be a problem for Stratton.) What was Stratton doing on the Rural Affairs Council while her potential rivals had real responsibilities? We’re not likely to find out. Instead, we’re going to get rhetoric like this, from Senator Duckworth: “Her many years spent in public service, along with her experience as a mom to four daughters and a caregiver to her own mother, have given her the tenacity, grit, and perspective to be a true advocate on behalf of working families.”

If Stratton loses the primary, she’ll still be lieutenant governor, whatever that’s worth. Unless, like her predecessors who tried and failed to move up to the Senate, she gets bored and quits.